After Open Source - An Optimistic Prediction

In this moment, AI is being built for developers, by developers, and marketed back to developers. This hyper-focus on developer productivity, cheap tokens, and the corporate race to win these audiences has had an unsurprising side effect: human spaces and communities have been flooded with uninvited noise, cognitive drain, and very often, useless content.

These side effects, especially on maintainers and open source communities, have created a debate about the fate of open source ranging from "open source will die" to "AI will fix it." I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. As we move away from code as the primary collaboration output, and developers as the primary builders, open collaboration will become more valuable than ever, and to more humans than ever.

I predict the transition looks something like this:

• AI company focus on developers will shift, and level-off as many developer workflows become automated and anyone can do it. Niche developer roles exist, but coding is no longer a barrier to build.
• Communities develop consent-based governance and frameworks to describe how and WHERE AI interacts with their communities and output (code or otherwise) and where data resides (digital sovereignty). (this is already starting to happen organically)
• New tools emerge that makes it easy for non-traditional roles to build (nurses, social workers, restaurant owners, construction workers etc.) .
• Previously, absent from open communities (or siloed previously in other open movements) new builders begin to tinker and make technology solutions for themselves and others in more visible ways.

The Maker Movement 2.0 gathers steam, and with it new challenges:

• Solutions (with a range of good and bad intent) will flood the market, and the internet. While edge cases and personal solutions will be groundbreaking for individuals and small groups, we'll also see a glut of duplication and slop not yet experienced.
• People will see AI consuming their content, without attribution or permission and become weary (and angry) of that status quo.
• The focus of digital sovereignty will influence and fragment some collaboration as (some) countries and people prioritize data ownership and open technologies and others lean on the familiar corporate solutions.
• The cost of AI usage/tokens will begin to rise as both use, and and capital investments require correction and recovery, reducing (among others) geographic and socio-economic inclusion and innovation.
• Environmental impact and exploitation will be increasingly visible, that combined with rising financial impacts will make use a topic of conservation , efficiency (something we haven't seen yet).

People will look at the thing they built and ask (to start solving many of those problems): "how do I get humans to pay attention - to fund it, use it, test it, contribute-to and help advocate for this solution?".

In person, and digital Open Collaborative spaces (the offspring off open source) will become the answer.

• Tooling advances enable separate (but parallel) workflows for AI and Humans to achieve goals; peaceful spaces for humans to create, share and form relationships thrive; (metaphoric) soundproof rooms for AI to get required tasks done.
• Lines between open science, education, source, data blur into simply 'open' collaboration spaces, which focus on outcomes and intersection rather than what the solution is made of (code).
• We start to see advancements in areas not previously possible (curbside cut effect), when people are able to build and share accessibility solutions for the betterment of other as-of-yet unsolved challenges.
• AI collaboration as a standard is now only by invitation of trusted community members with those individuals held directly accountable by governance for behavior, spend, and environmental impact. Many times AI may not be invited at all.
• Users and contributors make decisions about collaborative outputs that prioritize climate among other impacts.
• Attribution and licensing evolves to assert ownership of contributions and content.

That's my most optimistic prediction of the trajectory we are on right now. We are in a period of growth and growing pains as AI invades collaborative spaces not designed or governed in such a way that human participation is sustainable.

The optimistic future requires, tenacity on our part to insist on values to humanity: trust, consent, safety, accountability; the environment and inclusion. The alternative is to agree, that what we have built so far, is the best we are capable of - and hand it off to corporations and their machines. Lets not do that.

The work that needs to be done along the way to make this possible (what programs, tooling, human support, governance) I'll suggest in another blog post.

I am underemployed after being layed of by Microsoft last year.

I take a lot of time to write posts like this, and appreciate sponsorship if my writing helps or inspires your paid work - and of course, I am very open to conversations about building out the future with you! Thanks for reading.